First the Republican Party Moved Trump’s Way, Then the Country Came Along
In 2012 the Republican Party suffered their second straight Presidential loss. Yes, for those of you who may have forgotten, Mitt Romney and his running mate Paul Ryan lost that year. It was Obama’s reelection year. And in the wake of the loss the Republican Party did, what all parties do after a loss, they decided to get an elite group of political advisors together to conduct an autopsy, though the word was not used in the report, that is what it was– a report on the cause of the Party’s defeat.
The report was given the Orwellian sounding title, “The Growth and Opportunity Project.” The report was designed to suggest ways for the Republican Party to move forward and offer a pathway back to power. No doubt much in the report was good and useful, offering up the standard conservative fare of free market and limited government ideas, but there was controversy surrounding its embrace of comprehensive immigration reform, which means amnesty for illegals. I believe that this was the first time that the GOP establishment openly called for amnesty to be part of an immigration deal, while others in the Party leadership thought it would be a mistake.
Hard to imagine today, but then many felt that such a compromise was necessary. No doubt that a certain real estate developer in New York, Donald Trump, thought that it would be a mistake, both in terms of policy and in terms of the politics.
At the time the majority of the Party was still opposed to any sort of general amnesty for people here illegally, certainly law and order conservatives weren’t supportive of the idea, but there was a growing part, a sizable minority of the Party led by the Chamber of Commerce, that wanted to increase legal immigration and strike a deal with Democrats on some form of amnesty. They wanted a deal in part because they thought that it would help the party’s standing with Hispanic voters, and suburban women, among others. Naturally the Republicans were feeling down coming off a loss, and in response the number of people claiming that the Party should embrace “comprehensive immigration reform” rose. This rise would continue until 2016.
The report said, “We are not a policy committee, but among the steps Republicans take in the Hispanic community and beyond, we must embrace and champion comprehensive immigration reform. If we do not, our Party’s appeal will continue to shrink to its core constituencies only. We also believe that comprehensive immigration reform is consistent with Republican economic policies that promote job growth and opportunity for all.”
It’s odd in a way that the GOP leadership started pushing amnesty openly in 2012, because John McCain backed amnesty and he lost in 2008. Romney originally supported amnesty but then changed position before the 2012 election. He was generally more liberal than most conservatives on border enforcement, but he did talk about self-deportation.
It seems hard to believe today that the Republican Party felt the need to cave to the Democrats on the immigration issue, but this was long before Biden became President, long before he opened the country’s front door. This was a time when immigration and the border were not a major concern. The issue was well into the background.
Also, the thinking at the time was that “demographics is destiny”, that is as America accepts more immigrants, the electorate would shift towards the Democrats. The Democrats were confident that they were on the path for an electoral lock. And Republicans started to believe it. They started to accept the belief that to appeal to these voters they needed to adopt more liberal immigration policies, which would include some amnesty for millions of people already here illegally. If Republicans didn’t make a deal, they would become a permanent minority. This is what the GOP establishment preached.
Well, the theory never materialized. Immigrant voters didn’t move towards the Democrats. The theory, and Democrats’ confidence, was false for a few reasons. First, when it comes to the issues and what motivates voters there is little difference between native born voters and foreign-born voters. The top issues they care about are the same: the economy, inflation, crime, heath, foreign policy etc. Sure, immigration is on the list, but it is rarely if ever the top issue.
The other flaw in the “demographics is destiny theory”, is the belief that legal immigrants wanted amnesty or a less restrictive immigration system. That is a belief that immigrants feel a certain solidarity with other immigrants and want policies to get more of them into the country. These things were just assumed.
Among legal immigrants there is no more of a desire to give amnesty to illegal immigrants, than there is among native born Americans. For Republicans to believe that granting amnesty to illegals would help them with legal immigrants is absurd.
On the eve of the 2016 election the GOP frontrunner Jeb Bush defended illegal immigration calling it “an act of love.” Jeb believed that “comprehensive immigration reform” was the Republicans’ ticket back to power. And if he had won, I am sure he and Nancy Pelosi, and Chuck Schumer would have passed an amnesty plan.
Fortunately for the Party and the country, Jeb Bush’s view was rejected, and Donald Trump didn’t take the advice offered in the report. He won the 2016 GOP nomination on a restrictive immigration platform, and he then won the general election.
Over the last eight years the public’s mood on immigration has shifted to the right. Today the comprehensive immigration reform that the Republican establishment was willing to agree to back in 2012 would be unpopular today.
In 2024 Trump ran on issues that appealed to a cross section of voters, and he basically split the Hispanic vote with Kamala Harris. There was no talk of amnesty. In fact, a CBS news poll shows that a majority favor mass deportation. Looking back now we realize that the Republican party didn’t need to compromise on the issue back in 2012.
And now the position is reversed. Democrats are on the defensive on the immigration issue. Will they compromise? Will they move to reduce legal immigration as the public desires? Who knows.
But it isn’t just Trump who changed the public’s view on the issue, Joe Biden deserves credit as well. He opened the border, and so overwhelmed the asylum system that a backlash was created.
Immigrant rights advocates thought that Biden was their great friend in the White House, but ironically Biden hurt their cause because now the public is demanding not only stopping illegal immigration, but they also want a reduction in legal immigration.
It’s a nice irony that Biden, an open borders guy, has convinced the American people to reduce immigration. It reminds me of Obama’s observation, “Never underestimate Joe’s ability to f*** it up.”
David Shephard is the author of two books. Elections Have Consequences, A Cautionary Tale, and Norton’s Choice:An Inside Politics Exposé: